The narrative podcast Serial, launched in 2014, swept the globe with its true crime stories, being downloaded by millions of listeners and becoming a landmark moment in podcast history. It proved that with a good story and proper production, audio can captivate listeners just like feature-length reports or documentaries.
Since then, a plethora of narrative podcasts have emerged. Many producers, such as members of the This American Life team, came from traditional radio backgrounds, transplanting old-school radio storytelling techniques to the on-demand listening world. Major media brands quickly followed suit, from TED to The New York Times, launching their own programs and using podcasts as a new content distribution channel and brand extension tool.
Why Podcasts Are Like Blogs Back Then
Around 2005, blogging platforms made “everyone a publisher” a reality: tools like WordPress and Blogger were free and easy to use, and thousands of new personal websites were created worldwide every day. Commercial media and advertisers were initially bewildered by this new format—unsure if it counted as news, and unsure how to place advertisements within it; meanwhile, most internet users didn’t even know what a “blog” was.
Podcasts today face a similar predicament: the technology itself had existed for years, but it only truly entered the mainstream thanks to phenomenal hits like Serial and improvements in mobile device experiences. Statistics showed that at the time, there were over a dozen podcast categories and hundreds of thousands of active programs globally, but only a minority of American internet users had actually listened to podcasts, and many didn’t even know how to find, subscribe to, or share a program.
The Illusion of “Everyone Can Speak”
On the surface, all you need now is a computer, a microphone, and an internet connection to record and publish your own program, as if any interest—from stamp collecting to obscure sports—can find a like-minded audience. This democratized creative landscape was extremely attractive, leading podcasts to be seen as the next generation of personal media platforms, continuing the promise of “grassroots voices” from the early days of blogs.
But beneath the surface of this apparent prosperity lies a distorted reality: the number of top-ranked programs is limited, resources are concentrated, and the vast majority of programs remain perpetually unknown. Producing a program approaching the quality of Serial requires extensive interviewing, editing, and post-production work, far exceeding the perceived “casual chat” of the industry.
Advertising, Revenue, and Cooling-Off Period
Despite a relatively limited audience, advertising budgets are continuously pouring into the podcasting field because host-sponsored ads often carry personal endorsements, making it difficult to shift listeners’ trust and attention. Compared to banners or flash ads on screen, this “speaking in someone’s ear” persuasive approach makes brands feel more like emotionally resonant recommendations.
However, whether advertising prices can maintain such high levels in the long term remains questionable: current measurements of key metrics such as listening time and the percentage of complete listens are not precise enough. Once the data becomes more transparent and the market cools down, premiums may decline. If revenue is concentrated on a very few top programs, smaller creators are likely to be the first to suffer when the hype dies down.
Lessons from the Blogger Era
Blogs were initially expected to “reform everything,” but they followed an unexpected path: a few professional teams built vast content empires, which were eventually acquired by large portals or new media groups and integrated into the traditional media order. Websites like TechCrunch, the Huffington Post, and Curbed all started as “personal blogs/blog networks” and gradually became formal media assets favored by capital.
The subsequent emergence of social networking sites completed a second reshuffle: as everyone flocked to platforms like Facebook and Twitter, people no longer focused on managing their blog homepages, but rather valued getting immediate feedback and attention on their timelines. Content was compressed into status updates and 140-character short sentences, making expression lighter, but also more reliant on platform algorithms and social networks.
The Unknown Fate of Podcasts
If we consider the rise and fall of blogs as a prelude, podcasts may face a similar reshuffling: top programs and professional organizations will further expand, forming “audio media conglomerates”; while ordinary creators will be squeezed into smaller niches or migrate to emerging platforms. Currently, there is no tool truly equivalent to “WordPress for podcasting,” simultaneously solving the problems of publishing, hosting, distribution, and discovery, which also means that the infrastructure for podcasts is still undefined.
Before the battle between platforms and capital is over, this period is particularly precious: the rules are not yet completely fixed, and creation still retains a certain rough freedom. For most people, perhaps the most rational approach is not to rush into this competition, but to patiently listen and observe what future form this young medium will take.
